(SB) Accelerated Sugar Gains Sight August High, And Above Technicals

By: RJO MRTOctober 14, 2011 10:36am CDT 7521


The 240-min chart below shows not only a recovering market, but one that's accelerating higher. On the heels of what now looks to be only a 3-wave and thus corrective decline from 25-Jul's 31.68 high to 23-Sep's 24.01 low, odds are rising quickly that this month's rally is the dramatic 3rd-Wave of a resumption of the major bull trend to eventual new highs above 24-Aug's 31.85 high. As a result of this impressive, impulsive rally, further gains remain expected straight away with weakness below yesterday's 26.41 corrective low required to defer or threaten this bullish count.


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Indeed, the extent of this month's recovery shown in the daily log chart above clearly exposes Jul-Sep's sell-off attempt as only a 3-wave sequence as labeled. Left unaltered by a failure below 04-Oct's 24.31 (2nd-Wave) corrective low, this 3-wave setback is considered a corrective structure that, on the heels of May-Jul's major rally, warns of a resumption of that rally. And the Fibonacci fact that this rally stems from the immediate area of the (24.18) 61.8% retrace of this year's rally does nothing but reinforce this broader bullish count.

Finally, the fact that Jul-Sep's setback resulted in the drop in the Bullish Consensus measure of market sentiment (www.marketvane.net) to its lowest level (43%) since that that accompanied Jun'10's major base and reversal contributes yet another factor to a broader bullish count.

In sum, a bullish policy remains advised with weakness below 26.41 the minimum required to even defer this view and a failure below 24.31 required to negate it. In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected, with a run ultimately to new highs above 31.85.


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