(JY) USDJPY Reversal Prospects Continue; Trail Mini-Yen Stops to 129.95

Technicals, November 28, 2011; 8:30am

Overnight gains in the USDJPY cash market detailed in the 240-min chart below reinforce our basing/reversal count and define Thur's 77.00 low as the risk parameter we believe this market must now fail below to render the past week's recovery attempt a 3-wave and thus corrective affair that would be INconsistent with our preferred bullish count. In lieu of at least such sub-7.00 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are expected straight away.

Rebounding nicely from mid-Nov's 61.8% retrace of late-Oct's 75.82 - 78.38 rally shown in the daily log close-only chart above, we believe the market has defined 21-Nov's 76.89 low as the end of a B- or 2^nd-Wave correction within a larger-degree correction or reversal higher and to levels above at least 01-Nov's 78.38 high. But given the prospect that 31-Oct's 75.56 low completed a major 5-wave Elliott sequence down from May'10's 95.00 high shown in the weekly log chart below amidst a confirmed bullish divergence in weekly momentum and extreme bullish sentiment accorded the yen, the market could be in the early stages of a base/reversal process that could be major in scope.

Per this base/reversal count in the cash market, we advised a short position in the Dec E-Mini Yen futures contract in 23-Nov's Trading Strategies Blog at 129.45 detailed in the 240-min chart below. as a result of today's losses, traders are advised to trail protective buy-stops on this position to 129.95, or just above Thur's 129.91 corrective high this market now needs to recoup to threaten the impulsive integrity of this count and re-expose the long-term yen bull.

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