Technicals, March 21, 2012; 7:25am
The combination of a bullish divergence in weekly momentum amidst historically bearish sentiment back in late-Dec'11 as well as the prospect that 2011's entire decline was a 3-wave and thus corrective sequence provided the backdrop for a broader basing/reversal environment that we heartily advocated for the ensuing two months. But on the heels of continued and mere flagging price action this month and given the market's failure from a pair of Fibonacci retracement relationships in the 6.80 neighborhood listed in the weekly log close-only chart below, we are pulling the plug on a technically bullish bias towards wheat and forecasting a resumption of 2011's broader decline on the premise that the past quarter's recovery attempt is about as labored, corrective and merely consolidative as it gets.
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