Technicals, April 13, 2012; 6:55am
To this point the decline in heating oil prices from 24-Feb's 3.3130 high is only a 3-wave affair as labeled in the daily log close-only chart below. And the fact that this slide has thus far stalled at the exact 38.2% retrace of Dec-Feb's 2.7804 - 3.3130 rally may contribute to a bullish count that would content that Tue's 3.0957 low completed a correction and that the major advance is poised to resume.
Contesting this bullish count is the simple fact that by virtue of late-Mar/early-Apr's break below 06-Mar's initial counter-trend low at 3.1882, the new long-term trend has been exposed as down. As a result of early-Apr's resumed weakness, the market has defined 02-Apr's 3.2496 high as the corrective high and risk parameter this market is now obligated to recoup to break this developing downtrend, confirm the sell-off attempt from 3.3130 as a 3-wave and thus corrective affair, and resurrect the major bull. In lieu of such 3.2496+ strength, the longer-term trend has to be considered down with former 3.17-to-3.19-range support considered new resistance.
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