Live Cattle Futurescast Articles

Live Cattle Futures - Falling piano knife or buying opportunity of the year so far? By: Joe NikrutoApril 25th, 2012 10:48AM CDT Yesterday saw the June cattle futures among other meat contracts trade limit down. This took place prior to an official announcement from the USDA of a confirmed case of BSE (BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY) in a dairy cow in California. For those who were trading cattle futures during the December 2003 scare the mere mention of BSE can send shu.... Read More

(LC) New Risk Parameters Left in Wakes of Continued Cattle, Hog Slides By: RJO MRTApril 25th, 2012 8:43AM CDT Technicals, April 25, 2012; 6:20am While the market has forced the capitulation of historic bullish sentiment and exposure from two months ago as it approaches Apr-May'11's collapse in scope, it has yet to provide any technical evidence whatsoever that this decline may be near an end. Indeed, as a result of yesterday's mad cow report-.... Read More

The Past is the Past and the Future is in Futures By: Laura Sorrentino-TaylorApril 18th, 2012 12:06PM CDT Although past performance is NOT indicative of future results, sometimes we have to rely on the patterns of the past to aid us in our future trading decisions. A chartist will tell you that the fundamentals may distort market performance temporarily but the markets will always revert back to the technical patterns. With that in mind, traders may wa.... Read More

(LC) Trail Cattle Risk to $1.1655 By: RJO MRTApril 11th, 2012 10:16AM CDT Technicals, April 11, 2012; 8:25am Given the extraordinary bullish sentiment that warned of late-Feb's peak and reversal, the 11.5% collapse since then is not surprising as the market closes in on the 110.35 area that would equate this decline to Apr-May'11's 121 - 102 collapse that occurred under similar sentiment circumstances. But.... Read More

Breakout Low for Cattle By: Ryan NolanApril 10th, 2012 1:08PM CDT June Cattle is nearing new contract lows in reaction to a sluggish global economy and disappointing jobs’ numbers . Inflationary controls in China is hurting demand for imports. Higher retail prices for beef are causing consumers to consider cheaper proteins for their diets. All of these factors may cause the live cattle futures market to te.... Read More

(LC) Cattle Whipsaw Risk Swapped for Greater Nominal Risk With Tight $1.1700 Stop By: RJO MRTApril 9th, 2012 9:01AM CDT Technicals, April 6, 2012; 7:10am Only a quick glance at the daily chart below is needed to see that the developing downtrend is the dominant technical factor currently. But the scope and relentlessness of this collapse is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, no smaller-degree strength will suffice in concluding its end. On the other, such s.... Read More

(LC) Mo Failure, Frothy Sentiment Expose Major Peak/Reversal Threat in Cattle By: RJO MRTMarch 6th, 2012 8:26AM CST Technicals, March 6, 2012; 7:00am In last Thur's Technical Blog we discussed the historic levels of bullish sentiment accorded this market as well as the importance of 28-Feb's 127.95 low the market needed to break to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum needed to render sentiment an applicable technical tool. If overnight's brea.... Read More

(LC) S-T Cattle Failure, Frothy Sentiment Define $1.2645 / $1.2722 Directional Triggers By: RJO MRTJanuary 31st, 2012 7:57AM CST Technicals, January 31, 2012; 7:10am While the market has rebounded impressively from 12-Dec's 121.025 corrective low basis the now-prompt Apr12 contract and has achieved a new all-time high on a weekly log active-continuation chart basis below, some technical factors have popped up to warrant increased scrutiny of the market's ability to.... Read More

APRIL CATTLE UPDATE By: Ryan NolanJanuary 18th, 2012 11:14AM CST April Cattle futures is showing signs of support on news of fewer placement of cattle and increase in demand for export. The cash market has also supported the contract with strong bids in the Midwest. April Cattle is trading at 127.00 today with our upside target (Oct/Nov high of 130.00) still in play. We raised our bid to enter the trade around .... Read More

April Live Cattle - Possible Test of Oct/Nov 129.75 High By: Ryan NolanJanuary 10th, 2012 3:34PM CST The April Live Cattle market may be setting up to re-test the old 130 highs after the holiday break. Cattle has been oversold the last few weeks and is holding (124.50 – 125.50) based on tight supply. Volume has been strong the last 4 trading days and the recent chart may be developing into a mild bull flag on a weekly chart. Fundamentally th.... Read More

(LC) Navigate Cattle Correction/Reversal Around $1.1940 By: RJO MRTDecember 15th, 2011 11:49AM CST Technicals, December 15, 2011; 9:45am Following such a steep move such as the past few weeks' collapse that leaves fewer practical risk parameters around which to base trading decisions, traders must decide on a scale- either shorter- or longer-term- for the effective management of the risk of any positions. Subscribing to the "better-bein.... Read More

(LC) Cattle Collapse Confounds The Masses, May Just Be The Start By: RJO MRTDecember 7th, 2011 11:09AM CST In Mon's early Technical Blog we discussed how Fri's "outside day" amidst grossly bullish sentiment levels could leave the cattle market vulnerable to steep, surprising losses. A couple of days and 0.04-cents lower, the market is now pressuring 23-Sep's pivotal 118.475 low, the break of which could expose a reversal lower of maj.... Read More

(LC) Cattle Bull Reaffirmed But Precarious "Up Here" By: RJO MRTNovember 4th, 2011 9:30AM CDT Technicals, November 4, 2011; 8:40am On a weekly, active-continuation chart basis shown below, yesterday's 124.50 high confirmed a new all-time high and reaffirms the secular bull trend. This resumed strength absolutely confirms Tue's 118.00 low as one of long-term importance as a failure below this point would confirm a bearish divergen.... Read More

Live Cattle Futures Tear Higher By: Hector GalvanOctober 17th, 2011 12:01PM CDT It looks as if live cattle futures are once again on a tear higher. Obvious fundamental factors have been key in pushing for higher prices the past few trading sessions. However, we are nearing a large resistance point in the February live cattle which I believe deserves some attention. On July 13th of this year we traded a high of 127.00 only to .... Read More

(LC) Bullish Cattle Bets Off Following Mo Failure, Frothy Sentiment Combo By: RJO MRTOctober 11th, 2011 7:54AM CDT Technicals, October 11, 2011; 7:35am Yesterday's late but clear break below 04-Oct's 121.20 low we had as a short-term risk parameter confirms a bearish divergence in momentum. While seemingly tame and may actually prove to be a relatively inconvenient corrective hiccup within a broader bullish count, traders are nonetheless advised to s.... Read More

(LC) Summer Range Cap, S-T Mo Failure Stem Cattle Run; Beware Intra-Range Relapse By: RJO MRTSeptember 16th, 2011 7:49AM CDT Technicals, September 16, 2011; 7:35am Yesterday's late failure below 13-Sep's 119.025 corrective low detailed in the hourly chart below confirms a bearish divergence in momentum. As it's indeterminable whether the resulting rejected 121.30 high completed just the 3rd-Wave of the rally from 25-Aug's 113.45 low or a sequence-comple.... Read More

LAST TRADING DAY / OPTION EXPIRATION 8/31/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 31st, 2011 11:45AM CDT TODAY, August 31st, is Last Trading Day for AUGUST Live Cattle FUTURES. TODAY is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: NY Heating Oil; RBOB Gas. TODAY is Last Trading Day for SEPTEMBER Lumber OPTIONS. August Live Cattle futures will cease trading at noon (CDST). The remaining contracts listed here will cease trad.... Read More

(LC) Beware Cattle Failure Below $1.1715 By: RJO MRTAugust 11th, 2011 8:13AM CDT Technicals, August 11, 2011; 7:25am Traders are reminded of the importance of 03-Aug's 117.15 corrective low, support and risk parameter to a bullish policy and recommended long position, the break of which will absolutely confirm a bearish divergence in momentum detailed in the hourly chart below. Combined with the market's thus far re.... Read More

FIRST NOTICE DAY AUGUST '11 CME LIVE CATTLE By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 5th, 2011 10:23AM CDT TODAY, August 5th, is Last Trading Day for August '11 CME LIVE CATTLE OPTIONS. Please be aware that MONDAY, August 8th is the 1st Notice Day for the following commodity: AUGUST ‘11 CME LIVE CATTLE MONDAY is also the last day to freshen Delivery dates by "day trading" these contacts. Please call the Delivery Dep.... Read More

December Cattle Futures Still Hanging Tough By: Dan GuzmanAugust 3rd, 2011 10:02AM CDT After touching the 10-day low of 117950 on July 25th the December cattle has come on strong with the cattle to feed declining at the end of July and Canadian slaughter imports down. It appears that the cattle futures may have bottomed out for the summer and a long term up trend could be on the horizon. However the slowing economic recovery is worri.... Read More

Heat, Humidity Taking Toll on U.S. Cattle (Live Cattle Futures) By: Alex TothJuly 25th, 2011 10:46AM CDT The extremely high humidity and temperatures in the Midwest have started to take their toll on cattle producers. Thousands of cattle deaths have been reported, caused by the intense heat. Officials in Minnesota have estimated losses at 1,000 head, while South Dakota has reported about 2,000 deaths. Some livestock producers are expecting losses to b.... Read More

Live Cattle turning the corner? By: Dan GuzmanJuly 20th, 2011 8:50AM CDT With August, October and December live cattle limit down or near limit down last week the December cattle looks like it could lead the way out of the cellar. The USDA will report the results of the monthly survey of feedlots this Friday the 22nd.December Live Cattle 1-minute chart (LEZ1)Support in the December is 118750 - 118725. With that said, a .... Read More

June Cattle Update By: Michael RatajMay 24th, 2011 12:59PM CDT On 5/17 when June Live Cattle broke it's support at 108475 we bought the 107/104 put spread for $400. The underlying has maxed out but we still have 11 days until expiration. Today we bought the 1020 puts outright for roughly $400. It's been an extremely strong trend down and we're hoping for a continuation as these options trade into e.... Read More

Demand for Live Cattle Taking a Hit from External Factors By: William MooreMay 3rd, 2011 1:30PM CDT While a bottoming out is likely ahead, the cattle futures trend through April and May has been predominately bearish.External factors appear to be affecting the demand side of the market. With a rainy spring in the central plains and gas prices well over 4.00 a gallon, the BBQ season is off to a slow start. Drought conditions in the south should a.... Read More