Agriculturals Futurescast Articles

(LH) Hogs Take Another Base/Reversal Step By: RJO MRTMay 15th, 2012 9:25AM CDT Technicals, May 15, 2012; 9:15am In 08-May's Technical Blog we introduced the factors that could contribute to a base/reversal environment in Jun hogs, including: the market's current proximity to the extreme lower recesses of the past 8-month range shown in the weekly log chart below amidst the lowest (44%) MRT Bullish Sentiment inde.... Read More

Is Corn about to Pop? By: Michael RatajMay 14th, 2012 3:55PM CDT It doesn’t look like it. Last week’s USDA report suggested bearish ending stocks with the USDA number at 851 million bushels which was up 50 million from trade expectations. The immediate reaction is apparent in the chart with the 595 support from December easily broken. A bearish play for the short-term can be achieved by buying the.... Read More

USDA Shows Tight Supply in Soybeans By: Gerry PlotkinMay 11th, 2012 10:14AM CDT USDA continues to show tightness in the soybean supply side: demand was increased.With South American yield less, the demand will most likely come to the U S. A perfect growing season will be needed to keep the pipelines flowing. The crop is not in the bin yet.The problem is the macro economics of the world creates uncertainties that go beyond fu.... Read More

Trading a Big Crop Report is Better When the Market is Open By: Frank J. ChollyMay 10th, 2012 10:03AM CDT The ICE Futures Exchange is about to introduce futures trading in wheat, corn, and soy products. They will be cash settled and have extended trading hours to cover important crop reports which historically have been released when the grain markets are closed. May 14th is the planned launch date. I see this as a tremendous opportunity to participat.... Read More

Will Corn Futures Pop? By: Frank D. ChollyMay 9th, 2012 10:14AM CDT While I’m not seeing a major rally in corn, I do see the prices firming up a little bit in the face of outside markets collapsing. There has been massive long liquidation in precious metals, crude oil and even soybeans but corn ended higher on the day yesterday. There is some speculation that this recent pullback in pricing is sparking Ch.... Read More

(LH) Something's Gotta Give; Pivot Hog Directional Bias Around S-T But Key $0.8590 By: RJO MRTMay 8th, 2012 7:50AM CDT Technicals, May 8, 2012; 7:25am For the past 2-1/2-months the hog market has been getting hammered. Following an interruptive early-Apr bullish divergence in momentum that only resulted in an interim corrective pop, it is clear in the daily chart below shows that the trend remains down and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration. .... Read More

(S) Despite Exponential Bean and Meal Trends, Insane Bullish Sentiment Raises Odds of Reversals By: RJO MRTMay 7th, 2012 12:31PM CDT Technicals, May 7, 2012; 10:50am Only a quick glance at the weekly log scale chart of soybean prices below is needed to know that the trend is up on all pertinent scales following Apr's break above 2011 highs that has produced the highest bean prices since Jul 2008's all-time high. Bullish sentiment is understandably frothy and at a level.... Read More

Summer Corn Rally Right Around the Corner By: Stephen DavisMay 4th, 2012 11:23AM CDT There is a 20-week cycle low in corn due in the middle of this month. I am not in the camp that believes corn is going to trade sharply lower. My estimate for the low in December ‘12 (CZ12) is 505 to 510.There is a crop report next Thursday, May 10th. I will wait for the numbers to be released and then look to get long the corn market for th.... Read More

Big wheat crop on the Horizon By: Bill MooreMay 3rd, 2012 11:40AM CDT December wheat is trading at 656 ½ this morning coming into today’s open. The old crop from July is sitting at 612 ¾. This is an interesting contrast to the new crop/old crop corn spread which has July trading almost a dollar higher. Analysts are predicting a record crop in wheat. Despite uncooperative weather, we still have ha.... Read More

(LH) As Hogs Approach Lower-Range, Tighten Bear Risk to $0.8825 By: RJO MRTMay 2nd, 2012 8:48AM CDT Technicals, May 2, 2012; 7:55am While the extent and impulsiveness of the last couple months' 14% collapse in the Jun contract exposes a long-term bearish count that suggests the recovery from last Sep's 82.40 low is only a 3-wave and thus corrective structure ahead of steep sub-82-losses, the market's return to the lower-quarter of t.... Read More

Spring 2012 Corn Market: By: Jim BarrettApril 26th, 2012 1:39PM CDT The corn market is in transition from an extremely tight supply/demand balance sheet to a considerably less tight pipeline as fall planting gets underway early and record acres are likely to be sown. The transition is bumpy because of the tight stock situation which now means there’s not a lot of room for new export business until the crop st.... Read More

Live Cattle Futures - Falling piano knife or buying opportunity of the year so far? By: Joe NikrutoApril 25th, 2012 10:48AM CDT Yesterday saw the June cattle futures among other meat contracts trade limit down. This took place prior to an official announcement from the USDA of a confirmed case of BSE (BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY) in a dairy cow in California. For those who were trading cattle futures during the December 2003 scare the mere mention of BSE can send shu.... Read More

(LC) New Risk Parameters Left in Wakes of Continued Cattle, Hog Slides By: RJO MRTApril 25th, 2012 8:43AM CDT Technicals, April 25, 2012; 6:20am While the market has forced the capitulation of historic bullish sentiment and exposure from two months ago as it approaches Apr-May'11's collapse in scope, it has yet to provide any technical evidence whatsoever that this decline may be near an end. Indeed, as a result of yesterday's mad cow report-.... Read More

(BO) Continued Bean Oil Slide Defines New 56.30 S-T Risk Parameter By: RJO MRTApril 24th, 2012 8:01AM CDT Yesterday's break below Thur's 55.42 low negated our pure risk/reward play recommended in Fri's Trading Strategies Blog and reinstated at least the intermediate-term down-trend. As a direct result of this resumed slide detailed in the hourly chart below, the market has defined Fri's 56.30 high as the latest corrective high and tigh.... Read More

Slow Economic Growth Weakens Demand for Corn By: Jeff GilfillanApril 23rd, 2012 10:42AM CDT PRC JAN –MAR Corn imports at 1.74 MMT vs only 5400 tons last year. Last week managed funds unloaded a net 47k contracts in corn as crop planting on average is well ahead of pace. Markets are also quickly discounting slower Chinese growth and political issues in the Netherlands and France. After nearly 7 months of consolidation between $6.00.... Read More

(LH) $0.8990 Key to Hog Recovery, But Fibs, Waves Warn Slide May Be Ending By: RJO MRTApril 20th, 2012 8:33AM CDT Technicals, April 20, 2012; 8:05am The daily bar chart of Jun hogs below shows the magnitude of the past couple months 13% collapse. Arguably and minimally, strength above at least former 89.90-area support-turned-resistance is required to put a dent in this clear and present bear trend, let alone threaten a reversal. But for reasons discussed b.... Read More

(C) Corn Bounce Highlights Range-Base, Further Correction/Consolidation By: RJO MRTApril 19th, 2012 8:20AM CDT Technicals, April 19, 2012; 7:20am The fact that overnight's pops in Jul and Dec corn markets stem from the extreme lower recesses of the past four months' ranges arrests the recent downside vulnerability for the time being, exposes further intra-range price action and defines yesterday's respective 5.92 and 5.25 lows as short-term ri.... Read More

The Past is the Past and the Future is in Futures By: Laura Sorrentino-TaylorApril 18th, 2012 12:06PM CDT Although past performance is NOT indicative of future results, sometimes we have to rely on the patterns of the past to aid us in our future trading decisions. A chartist will tell you that the fundamentals may distort market performance temporarily but the markets will always revert back to the technical patterns. With that in mind, traders may wa.... Read More

Soybeans Uncertainty By: Gerry PlotkinApril 16th, 2012 3:19PM CDT Even though the soybeans are down today due to the macro economics, the world still has to eat. With the anticipated demand and the tight carryover it’s my opinion that soybeans will need to move higher in order to buy acres. Our chief competitor South America has had growing problems and their soybean crop has been reduced. South Americas is.... Read More

Still a Corn Bull By: Mike SaboApril 16th, 2012 9:23AM CDT Twice this year the July corn contract has found support just above $6.00 a bushel and rebounded nicely from that level on both strong technicals and fundamentals. After a gap down last Tuesday mainly on the crop report (numbers came in on the higher side of trade expectations), it appears ready for another test. I am looking for the $6.00 to hol.... Read More

Opportunities Arise in the Soybeans By: Phillip StreibleApril 11th, 2012 10:40AM CDT The next market leader in the grain complex with the opportunity of significant upside potential is the soybean market. Soybeans had several major developments that have added to the bullish sentiment and should continue to push the wind beneath its sails. Fundamentally we have seen the USDA pegging US soybean ending stocks (supply) at 250 million.... Read More

(LC) Trail Cattle Risk to $1.1655 By: RJO MRTApril 11th, 2012 10:16AM CDT Technicals, April 11, 2012; 8:25am Given the extraordinary bullish sentiment that warned of late-Feb's peak and reversal, the 11.5% collapse since then is not surprising as the market closes in on the 110.35 area that would equate this decline to Apr-May'11's 121 - 102 collapse that occurred under similar sentiment circumstances. But.... Read More

Breakout Low for Cattle By: Ryan NolanApril 10th, 2012 1:08PM CDT June Cattle is nearing new contract lows in reaction to a sluggish global economy and disappointing jobs’ numbers . Inflationary controls in China is hurting demand for imports. Higher retail prices for beef are causing consumers to consider cheaper proteins for their diets. All of these factors may cause the live cattle futures market to te.... Read More

(LC) Cattle Whipsaw Risk Swapped for Greater Nominal Risk With Tight $1.1700 Stop By: RJO MRTApril 9th, 2012 9:01AM CDT Technicals, April 6, 2012; 7:10am Only a quick glance at the daily chart below is needed to see that the developing downtrend is the dominant technical factor currently. But the scope and relentlessness of this collapse is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, no smaller-degree strength will suffice in concluding its end. On the other, such s.... Read More

Soybeans are Catching up on the Board By: Tom FeeneyApril 5th, 2012 1:33PM CDT When the planting intentions survey closed on March 15th the bean corn ratio was about 2.32%, today the ratio is running right around 2.53%. Now the relationship has clawed back to within the historical norm of 2.5% - 3.5% albeit still at the lower end of the range. While both commodities have benefitted from tight supplies this year, corn prices h.... Read More

(C) Why a Little Level Like $5.41 May Prove Pivotal in Dec12 Corn By: RJO MRTApril 4th, 2012 8:08AM CDT Technicals, April 4, 2012; 7:15am Now that a little time has passed to allow the post-30-Mar crop report dust to settle, and as we discussed in Mon's Technical Webcast, the recovery in May corn shown in the daily chart below is not unimpressive. And the extent of the past few days' recovery (above 26-Mar's 6.56 s-t risk parameter) is c.... Read More

Corn Outlook Heading into Friday's Reports By: Peter MoosesMarch 27th, 2012 3:40PM CDT In anticipation of Friday’s USDA reports we saw the May ’12 corn contract trade lower, down 7 cents. May futures had a high of 644 ½ and a low of 630 ½ today. Towards the close we broke 632 and ended up closing at 630 ¾. If the selling continues, 626 may be the next level we drop through, as shown in the chart below.... Read More

(W) Giving Up on Wheat By: RJO MRTMarch 21st, 2012 8:31AM CDT Technicals, March 21, 2012; 7:25am The combination of a bullish divergence in weekly momentum amidst historically bearish sentiment back in late-Dec'11 as well as the prospect that 2011's entire decline was a 3-wave and thus corrective sequence provided the backdrop for a broader basing/reversal environment that we heartily advocated for .... Read More

Now that the intentions have been counted have the beans bought back enough acres? By: Tom FeeneyMarch 19th, 2012 1:22PM CDT The planting intentions survey closed on Thursday and the findings will be released on the 30th of March. The question is have the beans rallied enough to buy back acres from corn? Since the last day of 2011 December corn has moved from 586 ¼ to Friday’s close of 574 ¼. During that same time frame November beans have traded from.... Read More

BusinessWeek - Soybeans Climb to Six-Month High on Chinese Demand; Corn Slides By: Frank J. ChollyMarch 15th, 2012 10:22AM CDT “Demand has been relatively good coming out of China, and it looks like beans will get cheated on the acres this year,” Frank J. Cholly, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Corn right now is still a more profitable crop.” To read the full article with Frank's comments, .... Read More

(LC) Mo Failure, Frothy Sentiment Expose Major Peak/Reversal Threat in Cattle By: RJO MRTMarch 6th, 2012 8:26AM CST Technicals, March 6, 2012; 7:00am In last Thur's Technical Blog we discussed the historic levels of bullish sentiment accorded this market as well as the importance of 28-Feb's 127.95 low the market needed to break to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum needed to render sentiment an applicable technical tool. If overnight's brea.... Read More

(BO) Bean Oil Dip First Approached as Corrective By: RJO MRTMarch 2nd, 2012 10:56AM CST Technicals, March 2, 2012; 10:10am Despite the bearish divergence in short-term momentum detailed in the hourly chart below and the Fibonacci fact that this failure stems directly from the (55.20) 61.8% retrace of Aug-Dec's entire 59.34 - 49.10 decline in the May12 contract, the past few days' relapse is thus far of a scale insufficient to.... Read More

(W) Favorable Risk/Reward Buy Brewing in Wheat; Buy $6.50+ Breakout By: RJO MRTFebruary 27th, 2012 11:59AM CST Trade Strategies, February 27, 2012; 11:00am Admittedly wafting within the middle of the past quarter's range that could still resolve itself either way, we believe a short-term break above the past week's 6.50 corrective high and resistance presents a favorable and objective risk/reward buying opportunity that could produce surprising pr.... Read More

Video - CME Group - February 17 PM Grain Commentary By: Kevin CraneyFebruary 17th, 2012 3:37PM CST Kevin Craney: Grains Rally on USDA announcement of Sale Soybeans to China.

(C) Corn Slip Defines $6.44 S-T Risk Parameter, Gateway to Broader Bullish Count By: RJO MRTFebruary 16th, 2012 1:08PM CST Technicals, February 16, 2012; 11:05am On the heels of last Fri's bearish divergence in momentum below 6.32 discussed in that day's Technical Webcast, the hourly chart below details yesterday's break below last Fri's initial 6.28 counter-trend low that confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as down. The important by-produc.... Read More

(LH) Hog Techs Turn Positive...Again By: RJO MRTFebruary 15th, 2012 8:38AM CST Technicals, February 15, 2012; 5:50am In what has proved to be a volatile first two weeks of February, the market's sharp rebound yesterday from the area around the (88.00) 61.8% retrace of late-Jan/early-Feb's 86.30 - 90.75 pop has exposed the sell-off attempt from 02-Feb's 90.75 high as a 3-wave affair as labeled in the 240-min chart.... Read More

(SM) Beware Accelerated Meal Bull By: RJO MRTFebruary 14th, 2012 10:47AM CST Technicals, February 14, 2012; 9:35am While the daily log chart below shows the uptrend continuing with yesterday's eking out of a new high above 06-Feb's 330.4 high, the labored manner in which this bull has continued over the past month or so typically means one of two things: waning upside momentum ahead of a peak/reversal OR a "c.... Read More

Speculating in Soybean Futures (ZSH12) By: William MooreFebruary 7th, 2012 8:21AM CST With first notice day a mere 3 weeks away, those interested in speculating with soybean futures will want to focus their attention on South American production and the key USDA reports on February 9th. Following a predominately bearish report on January 12th, key areas in Brazil have seen a harsh, dry month which could limit exports. Current estim.... Read More

Wheat Futures on the Rise (ZWH2) By: Peter MoosesFebruary 3rd, 2012 10:29AM CST Wheat futures reached a 4-month high February 1st. Traders will look to see if these prices can hold or break levels of resistance. Just a few weeks ago corn and wheat futures’ prices were neck and neck. Since then we have seen about a 70 cent increase in the value of the wheat contract. Export concerns from the Black Sea region continue to s.... Read More

(LC) S-T Cattle Failure, Frothy Sentiment Define $1.2645 / $1.2722 Directional Triggers By: RJO MRTJanuary 31st, 2012 7:57AM CST Technicals, January 31, 2012; 7:10am While the market has rebounded impressively from 12-Dec's 121.025 corrective low basis the now-prompt Apr12 contract and has achieved a new all-time high on a weekly log active-continuation chart basis below, some technical factors have popped up to warrant increased scrutiny of the market's ability to.... Read More

APRIL CATTLE UPDATE By: Ryan NolanJanuary 18th, 2012 11:14AM CST April Cattle futures is showing signs of support on news of fewer placement of cattle and increase in demand for export. The cash market has also supported the contract with strong bids in the Midwest. April Cattle is trading at 127.00 today with our upside target (Oct/Nov high of 130.00) still in play. We raised our bid to enter the trade around .... Read More

(LH) Hog Pop- Correction or Reversal? By: RJO MRTJanuary 18th, 2012 7:50AM CST Technicals, January 18, 2012; 6:55am In Thur afternoon's Technical Blog we discussed the prospect for at least an interim recovery stemming from the combination of the market's proximity to the extreme lower recesses of the past month's range amidst a developing bullish divergence threat in short-term momentum. This divergence was conf.... Read More

(C) Corn Confirms Relapse, Raises Correction vs. Resumed Bear Dilemma By: RJO MRTJanuary 12th, 2012 11:18AM CST Technicals, January 12, 2012; 11:05am Today's sharp losses confirm our suspicions of at least an interim corrective setback following 05-Jan's bearish divergence in short-term momentum below 6.40 discussed in that day's Technical Blog. Indeed, since mid-Dec's bullish divergence in momentum that defined 15-Dec's 5.76 low as one.... Read More

April Live Cattle - Possible Test of Oct/Nov 129.75 High By: Ryan NolanJanuary 10th, 2012 3:34PM CST The April Live Cattle market may be setting up to re-test the old 130 highs after the holiday break. Cattle has been oversold the last few weeks and is holding (124.50 – 125.50) based on tight supply. Volume has been strong the last 4 trading days and the recent chart may be developing into a mild bull flag on a weekly chart. Fundamentally th.... Read More

Chicago soybean price drops as dollar surges By: Kevin CraneyJanuary 9th, 2012 8:46AM CST "So some of the traders are holding off a little bit to see exactly how the weather shakes out in South America", said Kevin Craney, RJO Futures Brokers trading advisor. Some traders attributed the early gains in grain prices to the speculation that hotter weather in Argentina and Brazil will cut production and prompt the U.S. governme.... Read More

(BO) Bean Oil Technicals Constructive Above Minimum $0.5230, But Beware By: RJO MRTJanuary 4th, 2012 9:18AM CST Technicals, January 4, 2012; 8:10am Since 23-Dec's momentum failure above 05-Dec's 51.23 corrective high, we've been of the opinion that this market's broader slide from late-Aug's 59.40 high is broken and that the market is in the early stages of a correction or reversal higher that may be major in scope. But while the bullish.... Read More

July/November soybean spread - Exit Trade By: Frank J. ChollyJanuary 3rd, 2012 10:57AM CST I am recommending to book profits on the “old crop/new crop” beans spread at 31 cents or higher. We were buying the spread on December 19th at 9-10 cents. My target was for the spread to widen to 40 cents…but the spread has moved fast to this level and I will look to re-enter on a pull back. Grain markets have added weather prem.... Read More

Last Trading Day for DECEMBER Milk FUTURES and OPTIONS By: RJO Futures Market AlertDecember 29th, 2011 10:47AM CST TODAY, December 29th, is Last Trading Day for DECEMBER Milk FUTURES and OPTIONS. December Milk futures and options will cease trading at 12:10 p.m. (CST). Please allow time to contact your customers and to place liquidating orders; and remember to cancel open GTC orders when your positions are covered. Pleas.... Read More

(W) Wheat Confirms Broader Base/Reversal With $6.32+ Divergence By: RJO MRTDecember 28th, 2011 9:41AM CST Technicals, December 28, 2011; 9:20am In last Wed's Technical Blog and as a direct result of the bullish divergence in short-term momentum above 13-Dec's 6.09 corrective high detailed in the hourly chart below, we introduced the factors that warned of a larger-degree base and reversal environment. With yesterday's break above 02-Dec&.... Read More

AgFuturesTrading.com - Sixth Straight Record Year Influencing Corn Futures By: Kevin CraneyDecember 27th, 2011 12:33PM CST South American weather developments continue to support the corn (futures) market. With a lack of rainfall and dryness in key growing regions of South America along with improving U.S. economic data, corn (futures) should continue to rally in the short-term, said Kevin Craney, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago regarding the curr.... Read More

July/November Bean Spread - Update By: Frank J. ChollyDecember 27th, 2011 10:56AM CST On December 19th, I put out a recommendation to buy the “old crop/new crop” bean spread between 9-10 cents. The spread is trading at about 18 to 19 cents currently, with a high price so far today at 23 ½. I’m recommending to those clients who bought the spread at 9 to 10 cents, to consider adding to the position at 18 cent.... Read More

AgInfo.net - Wheat futures up again and cattle turn down By: Kevin CraneyDecember 22nd, 2011 8:55AM CST Kevin Craney with RJO Futures at the CME says there was also follow through buying on that South American weather. Craney: “A little bit of short of covering in most of these grains as we go into the end of the week. Be looking for any changes in the weather patterns for South America that might negate the follow through that we see in the g.... Read More

(C) Corn's $6.02+ Pop Insufficient to Conclude Reversal, But It Could Be a Baby Step in That Direction By: RJO MRTDecember 20th, 2011 11:23AM CST Given the extent of the past four months' 27% shellacking, the bullish divergence in momentum resulting from yesterday's poke above our advised short-term risk parameter of 6.02 is obviously of a scale insufficient to conclude anything but an interim correction within the broader developing bear trend. But given the market's proximity .... Read More

July/November Bean Spread By: Frank J. ChollyDecember 19th, 2011 3:50PM CST Consider buying the old crop/new crop soybean spread at about 9 to 10 differential. On this spread you would buy July (old crop) and sell November (new crop), with July price 10 cents over November. I am looking for July soybeans to rally more and faster than the November contract. This is basically a bullish strategy. I’m looking for this sp.... Read More

(LC) Navigate Cattle Correction/Reversal Around $1.1940 By: RJO MRTDecember 15th, 2011 11:49AM CST Technicals, December 15, 2011; 9:45am Following such a steep move such as the past few weeks' collapse that leaves fewer practical risk parameters around which to base trading decisions, traders must decide on a scale- either shorter- or longer-term- for the effective management of the risk of any positions. Subscribing to the "better-bein.... Read More

(LH) 09-Nov Low Break, Still-Frothy Sentiment Leave Hogs Vulnerable to Further Losses By: RJO MRTDecember 9th, 2011 9:35AM CST Technicals, December 9, 2011; 8:55am Whether this morning's new Globex lows below 09-Nov's key 86.80 low will be corroborated by day-session prices remains to be seen, but the reaction to this morning's WASDE report does nothing but reinforce the weakness and vulnerability that was exposed following 01-Dec's momentum failure below.... Read More

(LC) Cattle Collapse Confounds The Masses, May Just Be The Start By: RJO MRTDecember 7th, 2011 11:09AM CST In Mon's early Technical Blog we discussed how Fri's "outside day" amidst grossly bullish sentiment levels could leave the cattle market vulnerable to steep, surprising losses. A couple of days and 0.04-cents lower, the market is now pressuring 23-Sep's pivotal 118.475 low, the break of which could expose a reversal lower of maj.... Read More

(LH) Hogs, Cattle still Penned Up After Latest Intra-Range Failures; Beware Lower Prices By: RJO MRTDecember 5th, 2011 8:30AM CST Technicals, December 5, 2011; 7:50am Thur's failure below 28-Nov's 90.50 corrective low confirmed the bearish divergence in momentum we discussed in 30-Nov's Technical Blog that led to Fri's steeper plunge. As the daily chart below shows, the intermediate-term trend is once again confirmed as down that at least perpetuates the pa.... Read More

(LH) Hog Failure Defines $0.9225 High, Risk Ahead of Expected Relapse; Cattle Still Penned in Range By: RJO MRTNovember 29th, 2011 8:09AM CST Technicals, November 29, 2011; 7:35am Within an hour of yesterday's Technical Blog that discussed a developing bearish divergence threat, hourly chart below shows that the market failed below last Wed's 90.80 corrective low needed to confirm the divergence that now defines Fri's 92.25 high as the end of Nov's recovery from 86.80. .... Read More

(LC) Cattle Bull Reaffirmed But Precarious "Up Here" By: RJO MRTNovember 4th, 2011 9:30AM CDT Technicals, November 4, 2011; 8:40am On a weekly, active-continuation chart basis shown below, yesterday's 124.50 high confirmed a new all-time high and reaffirms the secular bull trend. This resumed strength absolutely confirms Tue's 118.00 low as one of long-term importance as a failure below this point would confirm a bearish divergen.... Read More

(C) Corrective Corn Dip Consistent with Developing Bull; Buy Call Diagonal to Participate By: RJO MRTNovember 3rd, 2011 9:22AM CDT Trade Strategies, November 3, 2011; 8:05am In yesterday's Technical Blog we discussed Tue's late rebound that rendered the sell-off attempt from 21-Oct's 6.66 high a 3-wave and thus corrective structure consistent with a broader developing bull trend. The market's rebound from the exact (6.32) 38.2% retrace of early-Oct's 5.77.... Read More

Trick or Treat?-Corn Update 10/31/11 By: Peter MoosesOctober 31st, 2011 8:51AM CDT December ’11 corn finished the overnight session down 7 ¼ to 659 ¾. The USDA Weekly Crop Progress report is due out today at 3pm CST; talks are harvest should be around 80% complete. With a strong US dollar, lower prices in energies, metals and the stock market we look for corn to trade lower today. Traders will be positioning t.... Read More

Looking to Strangle the Soybeans By: Hector GalvanOctober 28th, 2011 10:50AM CDT Soybeans have been a difficult market to gauge recently. However, with the USDA supply and demand report coming up on the 9th of November I still believe that we are looking to trade sideways for the next several weeks. Looking at the chart this morning I’m strongly considering the January 1050-1450 soybean strangle. If I can take in eight .... Read More

Corn Futures Rising for Now By: Dan GuzmanOctober 26th, 2011 9:22AM CDT Early October saw some Chinese influence push the Corn market higher. China has not participated in the global market for corn in 15 years. Sino Grain, China’s government run purchaser of corn put out a statement saying, “by 2015 China’s feed industry will realize a 15 million ton shortage”. Favorable weather here in the U..... Read More

Daily Limit Temporarily Expanded in Rice Futures By: Peter MoosesOctober 25th, 2011 10:36AM CDT As flood concerns continue in Thailand, the November contract for US rice futures settled limit up yesterday. November rice closed at $16.90 ½ per hundredweight. The daily limit at the CBOT is normally .50c; today it will be temporarily raised to .75c. The floods have already damaged crops and existing inventories causing importers to look f.... Read More

Correction in the Wheat Futures, Maybe? By: Hector GalvanOctober 19th, 2011 9:59AM CDT As I look at the Dec wheat futures chart this morning I can’t help but notice how oversold the market has been recently and the small, but noticeable correction it has been making. I would argue that we will likely be supported by the corn market and that the 600 Level in Dec wheat should hold at least until we get to the next crop report on .... Read More

Video - CME Group: Grains Turn Focus to Crop Progress By: Kevin CraneyOctober 17th, 2011 1:18PM CDT Grains trade mixed in the overnight session with little in the way of fresh news to drive prices higher. The market will be watching the crop progress report that is due out this afternoon for clues as to how harvest is progressing. The market is anticipating a significant jump in corn and soybean harvest as rainfall across the belt was limited ove.... View video

Live Cattle Futures Tear Higher By: Hector GalvanOctober 17th, 2011 12:01PM CDT It looks as if live cattle futures are once again on a tear higher. Obvious fundamental factors have been key in pushing for higher prices the past few trading sessions. However, we are nearing a large resistance point in the February live cattle which I believe deserves some attention. On July 13th of this year we traded a high of 127.00 only to .... Read More

(LC) Bullish Cattle Bets Off Following Mo Failure, Frothy Sentiment Combo By: RJO MRTOctober 11th, 2011 7:54AM CDT Technicals, October 11, 2011; 7:35am Yesterday's late but clear break below 04-Oct's 121.20 low we had as a short-term risk parameter confirms a bearish divergence in momentum. While seemingly tame and may actually prove to be a relatively inconvenient corrective hiccup within a broader bullish count, traders are nonetheless advised to s.... Read More

(S)S-T Divergence, Sentiment Plunge Warn of Soybean Base, Reversal; Establish Pure Risk/Reward Longs at $11.81 By: RJO MRTOctober 10th, 2011 8:12AM CDT Trade Strategies, October 10, 2011; 8:00am In last Wed's Technical Blog we introduced some developing factors that may contribute to a base/reversal environment that could present a tremendous buying opportunity for weeks or even months ahead. The weekly log chart below shows the market thus far holding at the 11.50-area defined by a pair of F.... Read More

(C) Cautiously Bottom-Pick Corn with Nov/Dec Call Diagonal By: RJO MRTOctober 5th, 2011 9:59AM CDT Trade Strategies, October 5, 2011; 9:10am While a bullish divergence in momentum will be confirmed on a recovery above Mon's 5.99 high detailed in the hourly chart below, this short-term divergence is of a grossly insufficient scale to conclude a reversal of the past month's demolition. However, the fact that the past week's resumed br.... Read More

Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: Feeder Cattle; Milk By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 29th, 2011 12:31PM CDT TODAY, September 29th, is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: Feeder Cattle; Milk. TODAY is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER OPTIONS: Feeder Cattle; Milk. September Feeder Cattle futures and options will cease trading at noon (CDST). September Milk futures and options will cease trading at 12:10 p.m. (CDST). Read More

Corn-Crop Progress Report 9-26-11 By: Peter MoosesSeptember 27th, 2011 9:29AM CDT With the release of yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report we saw the corn harvested for the week of September 25th up to 15% for the 18 states in the survey. Some of the biggest increases came from Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas. The good/excellent corn condition was up 1% on the report to 52%, still short of the 66% we had this time last year.... Read More

Video - CME Group: Bargain Hunters Look to Grain Market as Key Technical Support Levels Approached By: Kevin CraneySeptember 26th, 2011 2:59PM CDT Grain markets traded in a wide range with corn and wheat ending higher while soybeans traded lower. During the overnight session, corn traded down to the key support level of $6.30 and recovered to finish the day higher. Wheat saw a recovery off of its oversold conditions to end the day higher. With a lack of fresh news to help support prices in th.... View video

(C) Continued Corn Losses Reaffirm Developing Bear, Define New $7.04 Risk By: RJO MRTSeptember 22nd, 2011 11:18AM CDT Technicals, September 22, 2011; 10:45am The recent combination of: grossly bullish sentiment accorded the corn market its proximity to the extreme upper recesses of this year's range a confirmed bearish divergence in momentum on 08-Jun and a still-vulnerable global equity market condition may have finally come home to roost given .... Read More

(LC) Summer Range Cap, S-T Mo Failure Stem Cattle Run; Beware Intra-Range Relapse By: RJO MRTSeptember 16th, 2011 7:49AM CDT Technicals, September 16, 2011; 7:35am Yesterday's late failure below 13-Sep's 119.025 corrective low detailed in the hourly chart below confirms a bearish divergence in momentum. As it's indeterminable whether the resulting rejected 121.30 high completed just the 3rd-Wave of the rally from 25-Aug's 113.45 low or a sequence-comple.... Read More

(C) Sub-$7.08 Failure Exposes Major Corn Reversal By: RJO MRTSeptember 15th, 2011 2:30PM CDT Shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles have been in a neutral-to-cautiously-bearish position since 08-Sep's break below 01-Sep's initial counter-trend low of 7.37 discussed in 08-Sep's Technical Blog in which we also highlighted the importance of 19-Aug's 7.08 low as a long-term risk parameter. With today's break below.... Read More

Choppy Trading in Corn By: Peter MoosesSeptember 8th, 2011 12:22PM CDT Traders will be positioning themselves the next few sessions before the Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is released on Monday the 12th. Lower yields are expected in almost every state surveyed due to the heat and lack of rain during the pollination period. Some of the most damage is seen in Illin.... Read More

LAST TRADING DAY / OPTION EXPIRATION 9/1/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 1st, 2011 11:38AM CDT TODAY, September 1st, is Last Trading Day for AUGUST Milk FUTURES and OPTIONS. August Milk futures and options will cease trading at 12:10 p.m. (CDST). Please allow time to contact your customers and to place liquidating orders; and remember to cancel open GTC orders when your positions are covered. Please remember that In-the-.... Read More

Video - Grain Futures Finish Strong By: Kevin CraneySeptember 1st, 2011 8:29AM CDT While the grain markets ended the day down yesterday, they ended the month of August on a strong note. Corn was up 15%, soybeans up 7%, and wheat up 10% for the month. The story in the corn market remains one of yield expectations. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour pegged corn yields at 147.9 bu/acre. I believe that the corn market will be anxious to see ho.... View video

(C) Approach Corn Dip as Corrective, Buying Opportunity First By: RJO MRTSeptember 1st, 2011 8:22AM CDT Technicals, September 1, 2011; 8:00am If overnight's price action is any indication, the failure below Tue's 7.62 micro corrective low will confirm a bearish divergence in momentum. Given the magnitude of the secular bull trend however, this divergence is of a scale grossly insufficient.... Read More

LAST TRADING DAY / OPTION EXPIRATION 8/31/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 31st, 2011 11:45AM CDT TODAY, August 31st, is Last Trading Day for AUGUST Live Cattle FUTURES. TODAY is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: NY Heating Oil; RBOB Gas. TODAY is Last Trading Day for SEPTEMBER Lumber OPTIONS. August Live Cattle futures will cease trading at noon (CDST). The remaining contracts listed here will cease trad.... Read More

LAST TRADING DAY 8/26/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 26th, 2011 7:22AM CDT TODAY, August 26th, is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER OPTIONS: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year T-Notes; Bonds; Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil; Corn; Oats; Rough Rice; Chicago/Kansas City/Minneapolis Wheat; NY Heating Oil, NY Natural Gas, RBOB Gas. All of these options will cease trading at the close of today's sessions. Ple.... Read More

CME Corn Futures Price Limit Increase By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 11th, 2011 9:57AM CDT Please be advised that the CME announced it has received CFTC approval of its proposal to increase daily price limits for Corn futures and options. As a result, effective trade date Monday, August 22, 2011, daily price limits for CBOT Corn futures, Corn options, and Mini-sized Corn futures will increase to $0.40 per bushel from the current $0.30 pe.... Read More

(LC) Beware Cattle Failure Below $1.1715 By: RJO MRTAugust 11th, 2011 8:13AM CDT Technicals, August 11, 2011; 7:25am Traders are reminded of the importance of 03-Aug's 117.15 corrective low, support and risk parameter to a bullish policy and recommended long position, the break of which will absolutely confirm a bearish divergence in momentum detailed in the hourly chart below. Combined with the market's thus far re.... Read More

(W) Sub-$7.06 Wheat Failure Stems Corrective Recovery, Could Sight New Sub-$6.39 Lows By: RJO MRTAugust 8th, 2011 9:05AM CDT Technicals, August 8, 2011; 8:25am If overnight's price action (that we typically dismiss as technically irrelevant due to pitiful volume) is an accurate reflection of where the market will be trading when it opens at 9:30 CT, then the market's failure below the 7.06 corrective low and risk parameter we've discussed for weeks will con.... Read More

FIRST NOTICE DAY AUGUST '11 CME LIVE CATTLE By: RJO Futures Market AlertAugust 5th, 2011 10:23AM CDT TODAY, August 5th, is Last Trading Day for August '11 CME LIVE CATTLE OPTIONS. Please be aware that MONDAY, August 8th is the 1st Notice Day for the following commodity: AUGUST ‘11 CME LIVE CATTLE MONDAY is also the last day to freshen Delivery dates by "day trading" these contacts. Please call the Delivery Dep.... Read More

December Cattle Futures Still Hanging Tough By: Dan GuzmanAugust 3rd, 2011 10:02AM CDT After touching the 10-day low of 117950 on July 25th the December cattle has come on strong with the cattle to feed declining at the end of July and Canadian slaughter imports down. It appears that the cattle futures may have bottomed out for the summer and a long term up trend could be on the horizon. However the slowing economic recovery is worri.... Read More

Video - Weather is Expected to Support Grains in Early Week Trading By: Kevin CraneyAugust 1st, 2011 10:23AM CDT Commodity markets in general traded higher this morning largely off the report of a deal to raise the debt ceiling in the United States. Grain markets will focus on weather and the Crop Progress Report later this afternoon. Weather models are largely unchanged this morning. We continue to expect above normal temperatures to start the week and a cha.... View video

Narrow Grain Trade Ahead of Weekly Export Sales By: Kevin CraneyJuly 28th, 2011 11:16AM CDT Grains traded very quietly mixed in the overnight session. Weather models this morning continue to forecast showers moving across the northern portion of the corn belt, and hot weather remains in the forecast through the end of the month and the first part of August. There continues to be more chatter about damage to the corn crop due to excessive .... Read More

Heat, Humidity Taking Toll on U.S. Cattle (Live Cattle Futures) By: Alex TothJuly 25th, 2011 10:46AM CDT The extremely high humidity and temperatures in the Midwest have started to take their toll on cattle producers. Thousands of cattle deaths have been reported, caused by the intense heat. Officials in Minnesota have estimated losses at 1,000 head, while South Dakota has reported about 2,000 deaths. Some livestock producers are expecting losses to b.... Read More

Live Cattle turning the corner? By: Dan GuzmanJuly 20th, 2011 8:50AM CDT With August, October and December live cattle limit down or near limit down last week the December cattle looks like it could lead the way out of the cellar. The USDA will report the results of the monthly survey of feedlots this Friday the 22nd.December Live Cattle 1-minute chart (LEZ1)Support in the December is 118750 - 118725. With that said, a .... Read More

High Temps in the Midwest-Corn By: Peter MoosesJuly 15th, 2011 10:29AM CDT The weather continues to create a bullish corn market. The heat wave through the Midwest will reportedly last into next week. We saw September 11 corn (ZCU11) break the $7.00 mark this morning. With these weather trends in the forecast we may have the opportunity to test the high mark in June highs. On the September chart we are seeing prices break.... Read More

After Failed Reversal Attempts, Soybean Complex Sights New 2011 Highs; Buy Bean Oil By: RJO MRTJuly 13th, 2011 9:13AM CDT Across the entire soybean complex, Jun's respective breaks below prior key May lows and support left these markets vulnerable to broader reversals lower. But the gross failure to sustain those losses and subsequent bullish divergences in momentum and impulsive manner in which they have recovered have not only mitigated any broader peak/.... Read More

Just another buying opportunity in the December corn? By: Dan GuzmanJuly 6th, 2011 3:23PM CDT China's relatively surprisingly ¼ point rate increase overnight has obviously weighed on the equities, but also brought the grain rally to a small halt. Look for Wall Street titans flight to quality to continue, as Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan look to diversify their portfolios. Continued support by Japan, South Korea, and China, this c.... Read More

Soybean Outlook By: Jerry GidelJune 29th, 2011 11:24AM CDT Soybean Outlook Larger Brazilian output earlier this month and a firmer U.S. dollar have kept soybean prices on the defensive the past few weeks. Concerns about China delaying or switching purchases to new crop have also hung over the market as the trade awaits the USDA's June 30 acreage and quarterly stocks reports. The l.... Read More

Cattle Farmers Effected by Drought in the South By: Alex TothJune 20th, 2011 12:37PM CDT The cattle market is continuing its surge up from this year's lows on news from Friday's Cattle-On-Feed report showed that "new cattle placed on feedlots in May was down nearly 11%" year over year. Analysts had expected a 7.5% decrease from a year ago. Many farmers in the southern states were compelled to get rid of some of their .... Read More

Video - Grain Update By: Kevin CraneyJune 13th, 2011 1:50PM CDT Corn and soybeans trade on both sides of unchanged in the overnight market. Wheat was supported in the overnight market as there is continued talk of higher feed demand due to the high costs of corn. Markets will be watching for any news related to the Missouri River flooding and it's effect on acreage. Technically, the grains appear to be a li.... View video

Wheat Update By: Peter MoosesJune 13th, 2011 11:28AM CDT July Wheat opened today's session at 761 ¼. We will be watching today's weekly Crop Progress Report closely to see the latest numbers in Montana and the Dakotas. We saw records for spring wheat in last week's report for the pace of late planting and with more rain expected in the Dakotas, this pattern may continue. Wheat is more .... Read More

Despite Demand Concerns Late Plantings Firm Soybeans By: Jerry GidelJune 8th, 2011 2:13PM CDT Despite ongoing unease about waning Chinese interest in the export channels, soybean values have firmed over the past few weeks as building concerns about possible reduction in both the US planted area and national yield have surfaced to provide support to the soy complex's values. As this year's delayed US seeding period advances into late.... Read More

Soybean Update By: Peter MoosesJune 8th, 2011 11:11AM CDT The weekly progress report showed 68% of the crop had been planted compared to 83% this time last year, also leaving us 14% below the 10 year average. Hot and dry weather early this week should help planting but as we go into the weekend, northern parts of the Midwest look to receive a couple of inches of rain which would once again delay planting..... Read More

Corn Update By: James LombardoJune 8th, 2011 9:10AM CDT Corn rallied to close 27.5 cents higher at $7.64 a bushel in Chicago as supplies continue to tighten, demand is rising for end users to lock in available corn, and ethanol demand increased .7% from last week. Mexico made a large purchase of US corn, a third of the purchase is for 2012-13 crop year. Traders are expecting the USDA to cut its forecas.... Read More

Late Plantings & Output Concerns Remain Corn Factors By: Jerry GidelJune 7th, 2011 4:15PM CDT This year's delayed plantings because of wet weather in the eastern and northwestern areas of U.S. Corn Belt firmed new crop corn prices to their highest levels since 2008 before positioning ahead of this week's investment fund rolling out of the July contract and weekend rains in Europe weaken prices this week. Limited country selling also.... Read More

Video - Russia Lifts Wheat Export Ban & Pressures Grain Market By: Kevin CraneyMay 31st, 2011 10:34AM CDT Holiday weekend news that Russia will lift its wheat export ban put pressure on all grains overnight; however, corn and soybeans staged an impressive come back due to outside markets. Look for pressure to continue short-term in wheat as the market awaits additional information on the Russian wheat exports.

June Cattle Update By: Michael RatajMay 24th, 2011 12:59PM CDT On 5/17 when June Live Cattle broke it's support at 108475 we bought the 107/104 put spread for $400. The underlying has maxed out but we still have 11 days until expiration. Today we bought the 1020 puts outright for roughly $400. It's been an extremely strong trend down and we're hoping for a continuation as these options trade into e.... Read More

Will Mother Nature Deal Corn a New Hand? By: Hector GalvanMay 24th, 2011 11:00AM CDT It never ceases to amaze me how quick a market can put the brakes on when investors feel that it has lost all of its potential. Corn has been on a tear to the upside for weeks with a very strong and define trend offering bulls a great deal of support. However, as we saw in yesterdays planting report we are only 21% behind what is needed to comple.... Read More

December Corn Moving Higher By: Alex TothMay 19th, 2011 9:31AM CDT In past few days' the Dec. Corn rally proves that the $6.25 area still provides solid support for the market. Looking at a daily chart, the market looks like it's towards the end of a 5-wave bullish sequence. The market must break through the $6.82 area resistance to confirm the past months' pull back as a corrective 4th wave within a.... Read More

USDA Winter Wheat Crop Estimates By: Jerry GidelMay 18th, 2011 1:43PM CDT This year's first U.S. winter wheat crop estimate was released by the USDA on May 11. The government's initial forecast for the upcoming crop was 40 million bu. over the trade's average estimate at 1.424 billion, with a larger soft red crop being the difference. Hard red's output came in at 762 million vs. 1.018 billion last year. T.... Read More

USDA Latest Revisions of Wheat Supply/Demand By: Jerry GidelMay 18th, 2011 1:43PM CDT The USDA left its old-crop demand levels unchanged this month and began their 2010/11 overall demand levels at 2.290 billion bu., 55 million less than their Ag Forum pace of last winter. They jumped 2011/12's feed usage by 45 million to 220 million because of their theory of wheat being competitively priced vs. corn during the soft red harvest .... Read More

The Mystery of Corn By: Hector GalvanMay 16th, 2011 4:29PM CDT I just saw the plantings numbers for the week and I am surprised. We came in at 63% which is still lower than the 87% we had last year, and well below the 75% average. I would have thought last week's weather conditions would have slowed some of the corn progress. However, even though this week's number is weaker than the average I still.... Read More

Video - Kevin Craney gives grains commentary on CME Group floor By: Kevin CraneyMay 11th, 2011 3:14PM CDT May 2rd AM Grains Commentary: Higher Dollar and Bearish Outside Markets Puts Pressure on Grains

All Eyes on the Weather By: William MooreMay 9th, 2011 11:42AM CDT Wheat is up 18 cents in the late overnight session leading into Monday with a weaker dollar supporting gains in metals, energies and grains. Speculators of wheat will be watching the crop and global weather reports closely in the coming week. Reports of drought and rain in Europe and Canada respectively have been positive factors in the direction.... Read More

Corn Outlook By: Alex TothMay 9th, 2011 11:04AM CDT Corn futures are higher this morning, helped by the threat of wheat crop losses in Europe due to hot, dry weather. Higher crude oil and silver prices are also helping in the price increase of corn, despite rapid planting in the Midwest from improved weather. Traders are expecting planting progress to be 30-35% complete, compared to 79% at this ti.... Read More

Demand for Live Cattle Taking a Hit from External Factors By: William MooreMay 3rd, 2011 1:30PM CDT While a bottoming out is likely ahead, the cattle futures trend through April and May has been predominately bearish.External factors appear to be affecting the demand side of the market. With a rainy spring in the central plains and gas prices well over 4.00 a gallon, the BBQ season is off to a slow start. Drought conditions in the south should a.... Read More

June Hogs By: Alex TothMay 3rd, 2011 12:18PM CDT After about a week straight of steep losses, today's break below 15-Mar's 94.52 low confirms that the intermediate-term trend is down and steeper losses could follow in the next week or two. The next technical level of any sort of merit is 05-Jan's minor corrective low of 91.40. But given the impulsiveness of the current downturn, thi.... Read More

Rainy Days Are Here To Stay By: Peter MoosesApril 29th, 2011 4:05PM CDT With no break in the rain system moving through the Midwest and continued below average temps over the next week or so planting continues to be delayed. Many storms within the system are expected to be severe and will add to the flooding problems in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley. The weekly Corn Planting report showed that only 9% of the crop.... Read More