Currencies Futurescast Articles
(EU) Euro Technicals Heavy Below Minimum 1.3066 Risk Parameter By: RJO MRTMay 10th, 2012 8:17AM CDT Technicals, May 10, 2012; 7:15am The past couple days' break below the 1.3065-to-1.3033-range that has supported the Euro for the past three months clearly exposes the long-term trend as down. This former 1.3065-area is considered new resistance ahead of continued and possibly steep losses, with 27-Apr's 1.3255 corrective high close THE k.... Read More |
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Bearish Fundamentals, Euro Provides Upside Opportunity in Canada By: Phillip StreibleMay 8th, 2012 9:47AM CDT Everyone knows the Euro currency story already, Greece is bankrupt, Spain’s unemployment rate is at 24%, and they can’t pay their bills but how to create opportunity from this is another story. Trader’s initial reaction is to try and play the downside of the Euro which could yield substantial rewards in the event of a full scale d.... Read More |
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European Post-Election Economy By: Conor DouglassMay 7th, 2012 9:37AM CDT Francois Hollande defeated Sarkozy in the run-off election for the French presidency to become the first socialist elected since 1981. Though he captured 52% of the vote, markets this morning are not embracing him with the June Euro dipping below $1.30 overnight. His platform of growth through government spending was popular with younger voters t.... Read More |
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Greece's Election and the Euro By: Peter MoosesMay 4th, 2012 11:52AM CDT Investors are worried about the impact that Greece’s election on Sunday will have on the markets next week. Voting is mandatory in Greece for anyone 18 and over – and with unemployment so high for 18-25 year olds there, let’s hope they show up to voice their opinion. The polls are showing that the two biggest parties, New Democrac.... Read More |
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Reuters - FOREX-Dollar rises from 2-1/2 mo low vs yen as US data eases fears By: Matthew SchillingMay 2nd, 2012 12:23PM CDT "Once the euro rally lost momentum, that led to massive interest in June euro $1.32 and $1.30 puts," said Matthew Schilling, a commodities brokers at RJO futures in Chicago. "Those puts are showing the highest volume that I have seen in a while." To read the full article with Matthew's comments, please go to Reuters.com. |
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Global Currencies - Risk on/Risk off By: John CarusoApril 24th, 2012 12:18PM CDT For the past several sessions we’ve seen very little price discovery in the US Dollar Index and Euro Currency. Typically, the two currencies share an inverse relationship to one another, and both as of late have been trapped in tight trading ranges. As we enter day 1 of a 2 day FOMC policy meeting, it will be all eyes on Federal Reserve Cha.... Read More |
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Rueters- Forex options market takes Aussie dollar slide in stride By: Matthew SchillingApril 17th, 2012 10:21AM CDT "However, the overall trend in the options market is telling me that the Aussie is going to trade within a range for a while, with no major breakouts or breakdowns in the near term," Schilling said. To read the full article with Matthew's comments, please go to Reuters.com |
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(EU) Sub-1.3000 Break Exposes Broader EURUSD Weakness, Vulnerability By: RJO MRTApril 16th, 2012 8:29AM CDT Technicals, April 16, 2012; 7:50am Especially stemming from the exact 38.2% retrace of Apr'11 - Jan'12's 1.4807 - 1.2679 decline at 1.3453 shown in the weekly log close-only chart below, the long-term down-channel remains arguably intact. Dropping to its lowest reading (31%) since Jun'10 that accompanied a major base and reversal .... Read More |
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(EU) Beware Another Intra-Range Euro Pop While Key 1.30-Handle Holds By: RJO MRTApril 11th, 2012 8:35AM CDT Technicals, April 11, 2012; 7:45am As minor as this morning's poke above yesterday's 1.3146 high is, it could be the start of another recovery within the 1.30-to-1.3450-range that has contained this market for the past 2-1/2 months. By virtue of today's gains- and again, we must emphasize the minor degree of this strength- the 240-mi.... Read More |
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Rueters- FOREX-Euro falls to 3-week low vs dollar as ECB and Fed diverge By: Matthew SchillingApril 5th, 2012 9:46AM CDT While euro options look biased towards the downside longer term, there was some buying of the calls for June on Wednesday, according to Matthew Schilling, a broker at RJO FUTURES in Chicago. "Traders are buying puts for the September options," he said. "I believe that currencies that are paired with the U.S. dollar are going to stay wit.... Read More |
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(DX) Key USD Index, CRB Technical Parameters By: RJO MRTApril 3rd, 2012 7:55AM CDT Technicals, April 3, 2012; 7:25am While 1Q12 USD Index price action might best be described as floundering, the technical challenge has been one of determining whether this non-trending price action is merely that of an interim correction within a broader bull trend or that of a broader peak/reversal threat. Only a quick glance at the weekly log .... Read More |
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First Business - Trader Talk 3/13/12 By: Phillip StreibleMarch 13th, 2012 10:14AM CDT Phillip Streible of RJO Futures is giving us his market overview for the trading day in Trader Talk. |
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Bloomberg - Oil Falls on Speculation Fed Won't Provide More Easing After Retail Sales By: Phillip StreibleMarch 13th, 2012 9:45AM CDT “We are having a little sell-off and a stronger dollar is definitely having an impact on it,” said Phil Streible, a Chicago-based commodities broker at RJO Futures. “The Fed is probably not going to announce any quantitative easing today.” “The U.S. economy is continuing to pick up and we are seeing that in retail sal.... Read More |
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(EU) Euro Resumes Rally, Defines 1.3027 Low as New Key Risk By: RJO MRTFebruary 8th, 2012 9:31AM CST Technicals, February 8, 2012; 6:55am With yesterday's break above 27-Jan's 1.3235 high detailed in the 240-min chart below, the market has chalked up the recent sell-off attempt as merely corrective and reinstate the developing bull trend from 16-Jan's 1.2667 low daily close. As a direct result of this latest spate of strength, the ma.... Read More |
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(DX) USD Setback Nears Pivotal 79.50 Threshold Into Key EU Meeting, CRB Recovery Attempt By: RJO MRTJanuary 23rd, 2012 7:58AM CST Technicals, January 23, 2012; 7:45am On the heels of last Wed's short-term momentum failure below 13-Jan's 80.53 corrective low, the 240-min chart below shows that the market remains weak and vulnerable on a shorter-term basis. And as a direct result of overnight's weakness, the market has defined Fri's 80.44 high as the latest c.... Read More |
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(JY) Minor USDJPY Gains Contribute to Major Base/Reversal Threat By: RJO MRTJanuary 6th, 2012 8:47AM CST Technicals, January 6, 2012; 8:10am Since late-Oct's 75.56 - 79.54 rally confirmed a bullish divergence in weekly momentum, we have been of the opinion that the accompanying and extraordinarily bullish sentiment understandably accorded the yen warns of a base/reversal prospect that could be major in scope. The prospect that 31-Oct's 75.5.... Read More |
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(EU) Euro Looks to Resume 2011 Bear By: RJO MRTDecember 12th, 2011 8:40AM CST Technicals, December 12, 2011; 8:10am With this morning's break below 30-Nov's 1.3258 low detailed in the 240-min chart below, the market has confirmed our suspicions that the late-Nov/early-Dec recovery attempt from 1.3212 to 1.3549 was a 3-wave and thus corrective affair consistent with the ongoing major bear trend from early-May's .... Read More |
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(JY) USDJPY Reversal Prospects Continue; Trail Mini-Yen Stops to 129.95 By: RJO MRTNovember 28th, 2011 8:50AM CST Technicals, November 28, 2011; 8:30am Overnight gains in the USDJPY cash market detailed in the 240-min chart below reinforce our basing/reversal count and define Thur's 77.00 low as the risk parameter we believe this market must now fail below to render the past week's recovery attempt a 3-wave and thus corrective affair that would be I.... Read More |
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The Central Bank of Canada leave Rates Unchanged By: Hector GalvanOctober 25th, 2011 10:50AM CDT It’s a new morning and with that said it seems as though the Canadian dollar will have to struggle further. The Central Bank of Canada did not hike interest rates today as some were hoping to see in the mist of what is still a very turbulent global economic situation. In not moving rates higher one can argue that we are being given a clear .... Read More |
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Bearish the Dollar Index Futures - Debit Vertical Put Spread By: Anthony PickettSeptember 28th, 2011 7:42AM CDT The Green Back aka Dollar Index is the value of the United States Dollar which is weighted against five foreign currencies. Those currencies include the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6% weight Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight Canadian dol.... Read More |
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"Eurostress" Implicit in Market Rates By: CME GroupSeptember 21st, 2011 12:17PM CDT The European sovereign debt crisis resulted in peak distress levels in May 2010 and again in June 2011. But the crisis remains far from resolved as concerns mount with respect to the prospects of a sovereign debt default on the part of Greece or other peripheral European countries including Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy. The stability of the E.... Read More |
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LAST TRADING DAY 9/19/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 19th, 2011 11:57AM CDT Dear Valued Customers, TODAY, September 19th, is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: Dollar Index; Currencies (with the exception of Canadian Dollar, which expires tomorrow 9/20). September Currency futures will cease trading at 9:16 a.m. (CDST). September Dollar Index futures will cease trading at the close of today’s session.... Read More |
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SEPT 2011 IMM ICE Currencies By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 12th, 2011 1:45PM CDT Please be aware that Monday, Sept. 19th is Last Trading Day for SEPTEMBER ‘11 IMM Currencies. ( Micro - Currencies are deliverable ) On Monday, SEPT. '11 Currency floor trading is only from 7:20 A.M. to 9:16 A.M. Chicago time. (LTD for IMM Canadian Dollars is Tuesday, September 20th) Please be a.... Read More |
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(JY) Intra-Range USD Index Revival Stems from Unusual Sources By: RJO MRTAugust 4th, 2011 9:06AM CDT Technicals, August 4, 2011; 8:00am At over 57% and over four times greater than its next closest component- the JPY, at 13.6%- the Euro is easily the biggest component of the USD Index. So when the USD Index moves one way or the other, it's typically as a result of what the Euro is doing. However, today's intra-range rebound in the USD .... Read More |
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Video - Overnight Euro Pop Suggests Textbook Corrective Dip, Re-Exposes Broader Bull By: RJO MRTAugust 3rd, 2011 10:16AM CDT Recovering smartly from a 1.4143 low that came within four pips of the 1.000 Fibonacci progression relationship that equates this week's suspected c-Wave decline from 1.4454 to last week's 1.4537 - 1.4230 (suspected a-Wave) break, the recent 1.4537 - 1.4143 looks to be a textbook 3-wave and thus corrective affair that may re-expose a resump.... View video |
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Euro Takes another Hit By: Jeff RatajczakJune 10th, 2011 8:31AM CDT The April US trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly, and credit default swaps insuring Ireland, Portugal, and Greece's bonds exploded to record highs. A revision lower in the Euro zone GDP is also contributing to the downward momentum. |
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Euro Reacts to IMF By: Jeff RatajczakJune 9th, 2011 10:30AM CDT The daily chart on the right is the same chart as last posting. A little bigger right shoulder than I expected. Same over riding fundamentals apply, concern over European debt. I still believe that we will see a slide to 1.4100 or below. The IMF said the 26 billion Euro loan to Portugal "entails important risk" Bloomberg says:Greece.... Read More |
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Is the Writing on the Wall? By: Jeff RatajczakJune 1st, 2011 5:41PM CDT Even though the Euro has staged a slight comeback I still feel that there is plenty of room to the downside. The chart seems to be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. If resistance holds near 1.4500, you could see a sell off to the 1.4000 level or beyond. After all European sovereign debt issues are still far from disappeari.... Read More |
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June Euro Follow Up By: Jeff RatajczakMay 23rd, 2011 10:45AM CDT US Dollar strength and some of last week's fundamentals are finally starting to catch up with the June Euro contract. An overwhelming vote against Spain's ruling party, Greece's credit rating being cut again, and more worries that Ireland and Portugal will follow suit have take a toll on the Euro. As of this writing 6EM11 is down appr.... Read More |
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June Euro Currency Trending Lower By: Jeff RatajczakMay 17th, 2011 9:54AM CDT The June Euro seems to be in a short term down trend coming off of a recent high of 1.4925. Concern over sovereign debt problems in Europe and discussions about additional aid for Greece, might cause an increase in demand for US Dollars as a flight to quality or safe haven, putting downward pressure on the Euro. |
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Currencies and the Global Exchange By: William MooreMay 12th, 2011 12:35PM CDT With a predominately bearish market spanning back to January, the U.S. Dollar has been on a rapid decline in the futures market. We've seen a rebound in recent days on the heels of the death of Osama bin Laden and increased stability in the Middle East. This recovery was extended through overnight trading. The market could test near-term resi.... Read More |
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Falling Dollar pushes Silver to the next level. By: William MooreApril 28th, 2011 10:43AM CDT Rallying off of a weak dollar, precious metals have continued to expand in the futures market. This general bull trend in May Silver futures is expected to continue after a 31 year high was reached this week. Those holding short term positions in their portfolio may be hesitant of a downturn in the market. However, weaker numbers in the next wee.... Read More |
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