Interest Rates Futurescast Articles

Reuters - TREASURIES-US yields up as Europe effect fades a bit By: Daniel PavilonisMay 10th, 2012 1:19PM CDT "That flight to quality into Treasuries is coming off a little bit," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, in Chicago. "Ahead of these auctions people want to kind of step aside because rates are already so low as it is." To read the full article with Dan's comments, please go to Reuters.com

(TY) Beware Momentum Failure, New Risk Parameters as 10-yr T-Note Rates Near Key Lows By: RJO MRTMay 9th, 2012 8:36AM CDT Technicals, May 9, 2012; 7:10am There's an old adage in technical analysis that says, "double-bottoms hold, triple bottoms fold." There's a very simple explanation for this, and we'll use the weekly log close-only chart of 10-yr T-Note rates below as a real-time test case. If, after recovering from an initial rete.... Read More

(TY) 131.27 Tighter 10-yr T-Note Risk Parameter Heading Into Payroll Report By: RJO MRTMay 4th, 2012 7:47AM CDT Technicals, May 4, 2012; 7:05am On the heels of last week's run to another round of new all-time highs for the futures contract detailed in the 240-min chart below, the market's subsequent and thus far merely lateral price action is advised to first be approached as corrective/consolidative within the secular advance. Against a major bul.... Read More

(TY) 131.00 Pivotal to T-Note Upper-Range Vulnerability By: RJO MRTApril 17th, 2012 8:07AM CDT Technicals, April 17, 2012; 7:15am As a direct result of yesterday's achievement of yet another new round of highs for the past few weeks' rally detailed in the 240-min chart below, the market has defined Thur's 131.00 low as the latest corrective low and tightest risk parameter it now is obligated to fail below to stem the clear and p.... Read More

Video - CNBC - Squawk on the Street By: Kevin CraneyApril 9th, 2012 10:38AM CDT Kevin speaks from the CME floor on the May unemployement figures.

The Interest Rate Low Wire Act By: Tom FeeneyApril 3rd, 2012 2:08PM CDT Worldwide the struggle for central banks is for how long can they keep it low? The problem is the current anemic economic growth vs. easy money is creating speculative demand and is a balancing act that the Fed must deal with going forward. The hope for QE3 was dashed for the moment with the release of the March open market minutes (FOMC). While t.... Read More

Reuters - TREASURIES-Prices rise on Greece, global growth concerns By: Bill DixonMarch 7th, 2012 8:41AM CST "You're seeing a lot of the inverse movement with the stock market" today, said Bill Dixon, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, who specializes in Treasury and metals markets. "Also we do have a lot of big numbers coming out later on this week. A lot of people might have wanted to go ahead and take whatever profit.... Read More

(TY) Scale Key to Navigating 10-yr T-Note Peak/Reversal Threat By: RJO MRTFebruary 23rd, 2012 7:56AM CST Technicals, February 23, 2012; 7:35am The 240-min chart below shows that the market's recovery above 17-Feb's 130.315 high confirms a bullish divergence in momentum. This is a technical fact that defines Tue's 130.12 low as the end to at least the decline from 15-Feb's 131.245 high. Minimally, a correction of this 131.245 - 130.1.... Read More

(TY) Peak/Reversal Threat Continues to Build in 10-Yr T-Notes, But Beware Interim Pop By: RJO MRTFebruary 21st, 2012 10:14AM CST Technicals, February 21, 2012; 9:30am While the past few days' break below 09-Feb's 130.18 low contributes to a peak and reversal threat that could be major in scope, traders are advised to beware an interim corrective recovery within the broader peak/reversal process if the market cannot sustain recent short-term losses below Fri's 1.... Read More

(ED) Eurodollar Failure Threatens Bull, Defines 99.54 S-T Risk By: RJO MRTFebruary 14th, 2012 8:03AM CST Technicals, February 14, 2012; 7:50am The market's break yesterday below last Tue's 99.49 low detailed in the 240-min chart below confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as down. And stemming from the extreme upper recesses of the past six months' range amidst an MRT Bullish Sentiment Index that still shows a clear 70% bias to t.... Read More

(ES) Payrolls Reinforce S&P Technical Strength, Threaten T-Notes With Momentum Failure By: RJO MRTFebruary 3rd, 2012 9:02AM CST Technicals, February 3, 2012; 8:35am Today's clear breakout above recent 1327-to-1330-area highs and resistance detailed in the 240-min chart below chalks up last week's short-term bearish divergence in momentum as merely a corrective dip and reinstates the broader developing bull trend. As a direct result of this morning's strength, t.... Read More

(TY) T-Note Futures On Verge of Making History By: RJO MRTJanuary 13th, 2012 10:23AM CST Technicals, January 13, 2012; 9:30am With today's break to new highs for the recovery from 27-Oct's 127.06 low, only 23-Sep's 131.30 all-time intra-day high remains above the market as a pertinent technical level and resistance candidate. But should the market close today anywhere around current 131.16 prices, it will be a new all-ti.... Read More

(TY) S-T Failure From Range Extreme Threatens T-Note Bull, Defines 130.09 (1.97%) Next Key Pivot By: RJO MRTDecember 22nd, 2011 9:00AM CST Technicals, December 22, 2011; 7:25am In Tue's Technical Webcast we discussed the short-term bearish divergence in momentum as well as the point that this mo failure was of a scale insufficient to conclude a broader peak/reversal threat. Indeed, with the 240-min chart below showing that this week's setback has thus far held a Fibonacci mi.... Read More

(TY) T-Notes Satisfy Three Reversal Requirements; Look to Sell By: RJO MRTDecember 1st, 2011 9:04AM CST Trade Strategies, December 1, 2011; 7:55am The past couple days' relapse below Mon's initial counter-trend low of 129.025 detailed in the 240-min chart of the now-prompt Mar12 T-Note contract confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as down, the most important by-product of which is the market's definition of yesterday's 129..... Read More

(TY) Resumed 10-Yr T-Note Rally Defines New S-T Risk Parameter On Continued S&P Losses By: RJO MRTNovember 23rd, 2011 8:54AM CST Technicals, November 23, 2011; 7:45am With overnight's clear break above the 131.00-area that has capped the Dec 10-yr futures as resistance over the past two weeks, the market has resumed its broader recovery from 27-Oct's 127.06 low. As a direct result of this strength, the market has defined yesterday's 130.10 low as the latest co.... Read More

(TY) Navigating Major T-Note Peak/Reversal Process By: RJO MRTOctober 28th, 2011 9:47AM CDT Technicals, October 28, 2011; 7:50am Yesterday's break below 12-Oct's 127.165 low shown in the daily chart below reinstates the developing downtrend from 23-Sep's 131.30 low. This is clear. And by virtue of this resumed weakness, the market has defined Tue's 129.095 high as the latest corrective high and risk parameter this market.... Read More

(TY) 10-yr T-Note Erosion Reinforces Bearish View; Sell At-Market (128.03) By: RJO MRTOctober 25th, 2011 8:08AM CDT Trade Strategies, October 25, 2011; 6:45am Overnight's break below the past few days' support around 128.07 has, in fact, confirmed the intermediate-term trend as down and raises the odds that 18-Occt's 129.095 high is the end or upper boundary of a corrective structure consistent with our preferred broader bearish count. Because the.... Read More

(TY) Corrective T-Note Recovery Defines Key 129.10 Risk, Re-Exposes Developing Bear By: RJO MRTOctober 19th, 2011 9:06AM CDT The daily log scale chart of the E-Mini S&P 500 market below shows its current assault on the pivotal 1230-area upper boundary to a range that has constrained it over the past two months. A breakout above this range arguably breaks this year's long-term downtrend and could expose a resumption of the secular bull. And perhaps most importan.... Read More

Taking Security in the Bond Market By: William MooreOctober 18th, 2011 10:00AM CDT We have bullish and bearish trading indicators this morning with 30-year T-bond prices back above the 140-00 strike price. On the bear side, inflation numbers give strength to the bear camp with a higher than expected Producer Price Index. We had a .8% M/M change and a .5% increase in the Yr/Yr. While inflation may be up, slowing Chinese growth and.... Read More

The Fed's Intervention Looks More Certain By: William MooreOctober 5th, 2011 9:08AM CDT The Q3 spike in bond prices appears to be carrying over into Q4 as Treasury prices continue to be on the upswing. We saw substantial gains as the Fed’s “operation twist” took effect on Monday. By selling short-term debt and buying long-term debt, the Fed pushed a bullish rush into the 30-year bonds and 10-year notes. While the ann.... Read More

Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: 2-year, 5-year T-Notes. By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 30th, 2011 11:02AM CDT TODAY, September 30th, is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: 2-year, 5-year T-Notes. TODAY is Last Trading Day for these OCTOBER FUTURES: NY Heating Oil; RBOB Gas; Sugar #11. TODAY is Last Trading Day for OCTOBER Lumber OPTIONS. September T-Note futures will cease trading at noon (CDST). The rema.... Read More

LAST TRADING DAY / OPTION EXPIRATION 9/21/11 By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 21st, 2011 10:39AM CDT TODAY, September 21st, is Last Trading Day for these SEPTEMBER FUTURES: 10-year T-Notes; Bonds; Butter. TODAY is Last Trading Day for these OCTOBER OPTIONS: NY Platinum; NY Palladium. September Treasury futures will cease trading at noon (CDST). September Butter futures will cease trading at 12:10 p.m. (CDST). .... Read More

Unveiling the Mysteriousness of NOB Spreads By: Tarik HusseiniSeptember 19th, 2011 4:42PM CDT A common way to hedge your risk against your fixed income portfolio is to use the Treasury bond over the Treasury note spread. This is commonly known in the futures industry as the NOB spread. Most investors are well aware of the fluctuation in the yield curve and how it reacts to the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. There is not a day.... Read More

Global Debt and the T-Bond Markets By: William MooreSeptember 12th, 2011 9:45AM CDT 30 year t-bonds and 10 year t-notes are surprisingly sluggish coming into Monday morning's trading. This past month's roller coaster of volatility within the equity and index markets has lead to record highs in the precious metals and treasuries. Now with the added resurgence of another Greek debt situation, an already fragile U.S. economy .... Read More

EUREX LAST TRADING DAY NOTICE By: RJO Futures Market AlertSeptember 6th, 2011 1:53PM CDT Thursday September8th is last trading day in September 2011 Eurex contracts: Euro BOBLEuro BundEuro BUXLEuro Schatz Trading stops Thursday morning at 5:30 AM Chicago time. We require all R.J. O'Brien clients to close out/roll forward all September positions prior to the close on Wednesday, September 7th, 2011.

(TY) 128.11 (2.29%) Key Risk Parameter for Now-Prompt Dec11 T-Note Contract By: RJO MRTSeptember 6th, 2011 9:16AM CDT Technicals, September 6, 2011; 8:40am The 240-min chart below details the past 1-1/2-weeks' recovery from a 3-wave corrective setback in the now-prompt Dec11 contract from 130.22 to 128.115 that remains consistent with the secular bull trend. As a result of Fri's strength, the market has defined Fri's 129.085 low as the latest correct.... Read More

(TY) Secular T-Note Bull Intact Above Minimum 129.00 By: RJO MRTAugust 17th, 2011 10:22AM CDT The trend remains up on virtually every scale in the 10-yr T-Note market with 11-Aug's 129.00 low the latest corrective low and tightest risk parameter this market is now minimally required to fail below to even defer the bull, let alone threaten it. On the heels of early-Aug's impulsive rally, the past week's mere lateral price action.... Read More

Video - Debt Crisis Impacts the Financial Futures Market By: Kevin CraneyJuly 21st, 2011 9:55AM CDT Financials traded mixed on the day with continued concern over the debt ceiling talks in Washington. 10-Year treasury yields were up 5 basis points at 292 basis points. Until we get a resolution on the debt situation in the U.S. and Europe, markets will remain volatile. Should we get a resolution soon, then the markets could break out of this volat.... View video

(TY) Wave Count, Fibs, Waning Momentum Warrant T-Note Peak/Reversal Focus By: RJO MRTJuly 21st, 2011 8:22AM CDT Focus on the recent 124.07-area support as a tight but perhaps vital risk parameter remains urged as what could be a relatively obscure and short-term momentum failure below this level and condition could by the early spring board to a peak/reversal threat of major proportions. The 240-min bar chart below details the importance of this support lev.... Read More

Video - How Will Housing Impact Market? By: Kevin CraneyJune 21st, 2011 12:55PM CDT The housing market continues to struggle and that was confirmed this morning in the Existing Home Sales numbers. Existing home sales fell 3.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 4.81 million units.

Greece Lightning By: William MooreJune 21st, 2011 10:52AM CDT 10 year yields are up from a near 2011 bottoming out on the scare of a Greek collapse in the economy. 30 year T-bond and 10 year T-bill futures contracts have been predominately bullish in the last two months with markets closing at 125280 and 123290 respectively on September contracts. The risk to U.S. investors is still strong today with a pend.... Read More

June S & P By: Alex TothApril 29th, 2011 3:52PM CDT Yesterday's breakout above key resistance levels at the 1336-1338 range in the June S&P, and sustained overnight gains above those levels confirms that the intermediate trend is up. The 1337 area is now proved as a solid support level for solid gains ahead. There is a nice buying opportunity here, with virtually no levels of resistance ex.... Read More